Draft Salaries

[bonscott]

I was kind of thinking that each draft spot would have a pretetermined salary or average of the top so many salaries, as opposed to the #1 QB taken making a certain amount and the #2 QB taken makes a little less.

So in essence we would have 6 different scales that way your not over paying for a QB if there aren't any great ones available and they aren't drafted until late in the 1st round.

Sounds pretty complicated. I think there are guys that still don't understand what their cap hits will be in the future. No offense, just pointing it out.

Certainly like to see what you have in mind with some scenarios though.

It's actually much simpler than it may sound and we would have it all listed in in the rule book, so as long as you can read a basic table you'll have no problem. IMO It's more important to get the salaries right and fair, than it is to dumb it down, but I understand your concern. Somtimes it's easy to get to cute with certain rules but with this group of owners I think we'll "get it" even if it takes a little bit for it all to sink in.

I'd also like to get Marty's list to take a look at since they've had a few more years under their belt in a similar league.

Understood. I think what you are getting at is that say it's the 13th pick in the first round and no QBs have gone yet due to them being very weak. If i draft a QB you don't want me having to pay 2.5 million for the 13th pick. So there would be some sort of "cap" or "% decrease" the farther down a player slips in the draft. So perhaps at the 13th pick the #1 QB might only get 50% of the salary listed in the scale, or something like that. Is that the direction you are thinking?

[braven112]

Kind of but I think it will end up much simpler than that but in essense if you draft a QB late then you won't pay alot just like its setup now.

[linc]

Braven,

I have been reading the post and let me know if you want me to email what I use for my league's for Rookie slotted salaries. I have it in excel and you can plug and play with the salaries. Just let me know.

[braven112]

I guess come up with a scale for a proposal so we can look at it.

OK, here is what I did. To start lets take a look at the RB's. For the #1 overall draft pick I wanted the dollar amount to be similar to what we have now and found that if I took the average of the top 30 salaries it put me at 6.8 million more than what we have now but still in the ballpark and if you had Adrian Peterson for that amount you would be pretty happy.

If you take a look at what he would cost in year 5 that puts you at 10,032,257 which I think is fair market value. Then for each subsequent pick I then excluded 2 or 3 of the top players and by that I mean for pick #2 I took the average of the #3-#32 salaries for #3 I excluded the top 5 and went #6-35 and so on...

So for the #2 pick assuming that pick was a RB he would cost you 6.2 million and again in year 5 that puts him at 9.1 million which again I think is a very fair price assuming he pans out. There will always be the Cedric Benson or Ki-Jana Carter's out their but that is just the way the draft works.

Now here is where the new idea comes into play. Lets say the guy with pick #3 is loaded at RB and wants to go in another direction lets say QB he pays 1.9 million in year 1. He probably sits the whole rookie year so he doesn't get much return but in year 5 as the QB is in his prime you're getting a solid value at 2.7 million (Ben Roethlisberger/Vince Young money) if he's a bust you may cut him before then, but if he's the next Peyton Manning you've got yourself a sweet deal. The way its set up now if you go with a QB your looking at 5 million and if he pans out he's over 7 million in year 5 , Peyton Manning/Tom Brady money which is way overpriced for that kind of a gamble. This gives you options.

Here is the summary report I put together so you can see how it stacks up as you go down the line, just pick what draft pick you have and go down the list to see what your price for each position would be:

Example #1

Here is what it looks like if you are looking to sign the player for a multi year deal:

Example #1, future values

Let me know what you guys think, and what, if any, flaws or questions you have.

[braven112]

Braven,

I have been reading the post and let me know if you want me to email what I use for my league's for Rookie slotted salaries. I have it in excel and you can plug and play with the salaries. Just let me know.

Please do!!

[bonscott]

Let me know what you guys think, and what, if any, flaws or questions you have.

The numbers look too high to me. First couple picks are ok but way too high quickly.
For example....1.874 million for the #9 rookie WR? The #9 rookie WR will be lucky to ever start a game in the NFL let alone be a viable #3 guy. Sure there is always a Colsten here or there but 90% of the guys this far down go on to nothing. Besides the fact most WR's don't do anything until their 3rd to 4th year.
Or over 3 million for the #6 RB who will probably be nothing more then a career backup most likely.

Basically the salaries here are a lot more expensive and I'd rather have the current salary scale. Just my opinion.

[braven112]

Let me know what you guys think, and what, if any, flaws or questions you have.

The numbers look too high to me. First couple picks are ok but way too high quickly.
For example....1.874 million for the #9 rookie WR? The #9 rookie WR will be lucky to ever start a game in the NFL let alone be a viable #3 guy. Sure there is always a Colsten here or there but 90% of the guys this far down go on to nothing. Besides the fact most WR's don't do anything until their 3rd to 4th year.
Or over 3 million for the #6 RB who will probably be nothing more then a career backup most likely.

Basically the salaries here are a lot more expensive and I'd rather have the current salary scale. Just my opinion.

I still don't think you're on the same page, their is no #9 rookie WR. It's saying the #9 overall pick can be a WR for 1.8 million; a RB for 1.4million; a QB for 575k; a TE for 435k; or a PK for 425k Right now, no matter what position you choose that pick cost you 1.5 million.

The salaries still may be to high but lets make sure we are on the same page first then we can move on to where the salaries need to be to make it work.

[bonscott]

Let me know what you guys think, and what, if any, flaws or questions you have.

The numbers look too high to me. First couple picks are ok but way too high quickly.
For example....1.874 million for the #9 rookie WR? The #9 rookie WR will be lucky to ever start a game in the NFL let alone be a viable #3 guy. Sure there is always a Colsten here or there but 90% of the guys this far down go on to nothing. Besides the fact most WR's don't do anything until their 3rd to 4th year.
Or over 3 million for the #6 RB who will probably be nothing more then a career backup most likely.

Basically the salaries here are a lot more expensive and I'd rather have the current salary scale. Just my opinion.

I still don't think you're on the same page, their is no #9 rookie WR. It's saying the #9 overall pick can be a WR for 1.8 million; a RB for 1.4million; a QB for 575k; a TE for 435k; or a PK for 425k Right now, no matter what position you choose that pick cost you 1.5 million.

The salaries still may be to high but lets make sure we are on the same page first then we can move on to where the salaries need to be to make it work.

Ok, got it. I wasn't clear that was what you were doing. So knowing that the only thing weird off the top of my head is that WR's go for higher then RBs later in the 1st round.

[Achon44]

Let me know what you guys think, and what, if any, flaws or questions you have.

The numbers look too high to me. First couple picks are ok but way too high quickly.
For example....1.874 million for the #9 rookie WR? The #9 rookie WR will be lucky to ever start a game in the NFL let alone be a viable #3 guy. Sure there is always a Colsten here or there but 90% of the guys this far down go on to nothing. Besides the fact most WR's don't do anything until their 3rd to 4th year.
Or over 3 million for the #6 RB who will probably be nothing more then a career backup most likely.

Basically the salaries here are a lot more expensive and I'd rather have the current salary scale. Just my opinion.

I still don't think you're on the same page, their is no #9 rookie WR. It's saying the #9 overall pick can be a WR for 1.8 million; a RB for 1.4million; a QB for 575k; a TE for 435k; or a PK for 425k Right now, no matter what position you choose that pick cost you 1.5 million.

The salaries still may be to high but lets make sure we are on the same page first then we can move on to where the salaries need to be to make it work.

I'm confused on why WR rookie salaries become higher than RB rookie salaries as you go along.

[braven112]

It's because teams carry more WR's than the other positions. We need to take a look at how many starters or total players per position and tweak the formula.

For example teams only start 1 QB but they would start at least 2 or 3 WR's. On the same token teams probably only start 1 or 2 RB's but 3 is also possible. I used a range of 30 players to calculate the salaries. We should probably use 60 or 70 for the WR's since there are so many more of them rostered.

How many players are rostered per position? Also what is the average breakdown of the starters?

[bonscott]

How many players are rostered per position? Also what is the average breakdown of the starters?

According to this report: http://football.myfantasyleague.com/200 ... 76273&O=23

22.1% of scoring was done last year by the RBs vs 31.2% for the WRs. Doesn't give a breakdown of the numbers. But I'm sure with 16 teams more teams started WRs then RBs, just the nature of it.

If you put the RB vs. WR salaries above 1 million side by side we get the following:

Code: Select all

1	$11,275,000 	$7,920,000 
2	$11,027,500 	$6,985,000 
3	$11,000,000 	$6,655,000 
4	$10,525,000 	$6,000,000 
5	$10,120,000 	$5,967,500 
6	$10,100,000 	$5,940,000 
7	$10,092,500 	$5,912,500 
8	$9,927,500 	$5,885,000 
9	$9,872,500 	$5,830,000 
10	$9,775,000 	$5,775,000 
11	$9,000,000 	$5,610,000 
12	$8,470,000 	$5,575,000 
13	$8,277,500 	$5,500,000 
14	$7,000,000 	$5,225,000 
15	$6,775,000 	$5,087,500 
16	$6,242,500 	$4,950,000 
17	$6,025,000 	$4,565,000 
18	$5,445,000 	$4,097,500 
19	$4,977,500 	$4,025,000 
20	$4,895,000 	$3,932,500 
21	$4,675,000 	$3,712,500 
22	$4,025,000 	$3,657,500 
23	$4,025,000 	$3,575,000 
24	$4,000,000 	$3,525,000 
25	$3,850,000 	$3,052,500 
26	$3,685,000 	$3,000,000 
27	$3,382,500 	$2,625,000 
28	$3,050,000 	$2,625,000 
29	$2,025,000 	$2,612,500 
30	$2,025,000 	$2,282,500 
31	$1,952,500 	$2,227,500 
32	$1,425,000 	$2,227,500 
33	$1,292,500 	$2,125,000 
34	$1,072,500 	$1,870,000 
35	$1,050,000 	$1,760,000 
36		<1m        $1,677,500 
37		<1m         $1,595,000 
38		 <1m        $1,512,500 
39		<1m         $1,457,500 
40		  <1m       $1,292,500 

This shows that out to #28 RBs are a lot more then WRs and then RB have a drop off. WRs keep their value up until #40. I'm no statistics man but I'm sure this is the reason for the WRs on your rookie scale being more expensive then RBs in the later picks.

[bonscott]

I assume that for pick 17 and all the 2nd round the salary would be 425K per position, correct?

[braven112]

I assume that for pick 17 and all the 2nd round the salary would be 425K per position, correct?

That's what I was thinking, but we could always change that.

[bonscott]

I assume that for pick 17 and all the 2nd round the salary would be 425K per position, correct?

That's what I was thinking, but we could always change that.

No reason to. Picks that late are true luck of the draw. Minimum is good.

[braven112]

We just need to figure out how many RB's vs WR's vs QB's ect. are rostered so we can figure out the correct ratio's to use. I probably won't get a chance until I get home to really look too much into it though.

[braven112]

In everyone's opinion, from top to bottom, what positions salaries are most accurate not necessarily perfect but closest to being accurate?

[Achon44]

In everyone's opinion, from top to bottom, what positions salaries are most accurate not necessarily perfect but closest to being accurate?

It's hard to look at things that way, because in 3-4 years everything will be much different.

[braven112]

In everyone's opinion, from top to bottom, what positions salaries are most accurate not necessarily perfect but closest to being accurate?

It's hard to look at things that way, because in 3-4 years everything will be much different.

How do you mean?

[braven112]

How many players are rostered per position? Also what is the average breakdown of the starters?

According to this report: http://football.myfantasyleague.com/200 ... 76273&O=23

22.1% of scoring was done last year by the RBs vs 31.2% for the WRs. Doesn't give a breakdown of the numbers. But I'm sure with 16 teams more teams started WRs then RBs, just the nature of it.

I did the breakdown of players per position...

Currently teams have on average:

2.63 QB per Roster
4.38 RB per Roster
5.31 WR per Roster
2.00 TE per Roster
1.63 PK per Roster
1.94 Def per Roster (one team isn't on a roster)

That totals to 17.89 players per Roster.

I think that further explains why WR's average salaries don't drop at the same rate of the other positions.

[Achon44]

In everyone's opinion, from top to bottom, what positions salaries are most accurate not necessarily perfect but closest to being accurate?

It's hard to look at things that way, because in 3-4 years everything will be much different.

How do you mean?

By lowering the rookie salaries that will leave more cap room to bid on free agents, so the top salaries will rise. If a team drafts well, which IMO is the key to dynasty success, and signs their picks to 4-5 year contracts they will be able to overpay on a free agent(s) for 1-2 years to help them try to win a championship and IMO this is how this league should work. Free agency shouldn't dictate how you can spend your money on draft picks instead your drafting should dictate how you can spend your money on free agents.

We will see $15M+ contracts again and we will see more teams tagging players when their contracts expire. The difference is teams won't be so strapped everywhere else as long as they work the draft well.

[braven112]

I couldn't agree more. That's exactly how I want the league to work. The scenario's that I'm trying to come up with are based on averages of current salaries but they'll be dynamic and will always reflect what the market is doing but at some level they have to start as an arbitrary number. What I was asking is what rookie salary scale (QB, RB, WR, TE, PK) that I came up with earlier, best reflects what salaries should be, based on today's numbers. That way I could try to come up with some dynamic formula that works year in and year out and is always based on average salaries at the time of the draft and reflects the constant changes in the market.

[braven112]

Here is example #2, with this I tried to take into account the fact that teams carry a different number of positions and so those positions should be calculated differently.

http://dynastytheleague.com/rookie_sala ... ear_1.html

Also here the excell spreadsheet I was using if anyone wants to play around with it.

http://dynastytheleague.com/salary/rook ... mples2.xls

[Achon44]

My

Just suggesting a starting point for the 1.01 pick...

QB - 3M
RB - 4M
WR - 3.5M
TE - 2M
K - 500K

We also need to remember that teams picking this high are there for a reason...they need help.

[bonscott]

Here is example #2, with this I tried to take into account the fact that teams carry a different number of positions and so those positions should be calculated differently.

http://dynastytheleague.com/rookie_sala ... ear_1.html

Also here the excell spreadsheet I was using if anyone wants to play around with it.

http://dynastytheleague.com/salary/rook ... mples2.xls

This is looking better.

[braven112]

My

Just suggesting a starting point for the 1.01 pick...

QB - 3M
RB - 4M
WR - 3.5M
TE - 2M
K - 500K

We also need to remember that teams picking this high are there for a reason...they need help.

Agreed, I think that's almost spot on to what the second example has and keep in mind if next year someone where to bid 18 million on a RB again the 1.01 pick would go up a little but the subsequent picks wouldn't be effected unless say the entire group of top 5 RB's went really high like that and then salaries for picks 2 and 3 would move up slightly.

You can play around with the spreadsheet to get a better feel for it. Conversely if the top salaries of a position went down like we saw RB's go down from year 1 to year 2, then the rookie salaries would automatically adjust down slightly to take that into account.