RFA #2 Player: TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN

[Cybergeek]

RFA #2 Player: TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN
2023 Salary: $1,610,510
2024 Tagged Salary: $3,929,805

[bocious]

$5.4 million, 5 years

[Cybergeek]

Be back in 9 minutes to announce that I'm matching the bid.

[Cybergeek]

Geek Squad will match.

[bocious]

That’s a good contract. I had a feeling you’d match, and I’m surprised nobody else put in a bid. That seemed like the best tag of the bunch this season.

[Wascawy Wabbits]

I don't think anyone was willing to give an offer for TJH that would make Geeks hesitate to not match because of his knee getting blown up at the end of the season.

I was shocked to see you put such a low $$ offer with max terms. It was an insta accept for Geeks to get him for 5 years at an (arguably) below market value contract.

If you wanted a chance at him, the contract offer probably should have been 2-3 mil more than it was, but then you're likely sitting on him most of the year due to his injury at a high cost.

A 1yr deal at 5.4 may have had a better chance of getting him than a 5 year deal due to his injury status and 20% contract increase next offseason to tag again.

[bocious]

Eh, why would I take more risk than anyone else was willing to take? I'm not trying to screw myself and everyone else stayed out completely.

[Wascawy Wabbits]

That's the thing w/ the offers period. You have to offer near max value on that player to potentially sign them. Considering the contracts that TEs have received in recent years ($7m for a lower tier TE in Goedert to $15m for Kelce in FA), offering TJH 5.4 for 5 years was a pretty easy match for a guy considered a top 3 TE, even tho he's likely going to have a down year this year due to the injury. Had he not been injured, I could see him having received a $10m offer from a team in the final minutes (the BTP way).

I think you would have taken on less risk by offering a 1 year deal over a 5, because then you'd have the opportunity to either increase his cost for Geeks or gain control of the player to tag the following year.

[bocious]

Okay great, but I already have Mark Andrews. Most teams need a TE more than me and they didn't even put in a bid for a TE that was clearly under-priced, so I offered what I was willing to pay for the terms I was willing to pay it given my team composition and budget. I'm not going to arbitrarily jack up the price beyond what I'm willing to pay, and others had the opportunity to make higher bids for a shorter period - I waited til the last minute specifically to give other people that opportunity, and nobody took it. Now Geeks has a contract with good upside if the risk pays off and millions in dead money if it doesn't. It's exactly the contract I would have been willing to pay if given the opportunity and now I'm keeping my second round pick, so I feel fine with it.

[Cybergeek]

That’s a good contract. I had a feeling you’d match, and I’m surprised nobody else put in a bid. That seemed like the best tag of the bunch this season.

I agree. I thought TJ presented the best value of the tagged players. I thought that he would command an offer of 8-10 million, and 1-3 years. The knee injury dampened the market for sure, as this season will be somewhat of a loss.

Signing him for 5 years at that price definitely mitigates the time missed this season while rehabbing from knee surgery. Hopefully, I'll have him at full strength for the playoffs.

Playoffs!? We're talking playoffs!?

[Achon44]

I LOVE TEs!! I tried to figure out a bid for TJH but just couldn't come up with anything that would help me without also helping Geeks if he matched. Knowing TJH is going to be out for most of 2024 and that he'd need to be tagged or released again next year I figured it best to let him sit on Geeks IR for most of the season and come back here next year. IMO, if you can't make a bid that forces the owner to think long and hard, then don't make it.

P.S. Also, as soon as Geeks left the comment, "Be back in 9 minutes to announce that I'm matching the bid." I would have retracted my bid.

[Wascawy Wabbits]

I think that if you had come in with a low offer like that earlier in the tagging process, you may have seen a bit more activity on TJH. Myself, I didn't bid because I figured I'd let Geeks burn the cap space this year with the idea he'd be getting tagged again next offseason and I'd probably bid then.

Had he been healthy, he likely gets a few bids and ends up in the 10+ range.

That last minute offer was the equivalent of a "LLLLEEEEERRRROOOOOYYYY JENKINSSS!!!!" with how team friendly it was.

[Achon44]

I LOVE TEs!! I tried to figure out a bid for TJH but just couldn't come up with anything that would help me without also helping Geeks if he matched. Knowing TJH is going to be out for most of 2024 and that he'd need to be tagged or released again next year I figured it best to let him sit on Geeks IR for most of the season and come back here next year. IMO, if you can't make a bid that forces the owner to think long and hard, then don't make it.

P.S. Also, as soon as Geeks left the comment, "Be back in 9 minutes to announce that I'm matching the bid." I would have retracted my bid.

Please ignore the P.S. I didn't have my reading glasses on and read the time wrong #OLD

[bocious]

C'mon guys, you're talking about the downside risk of TJH's knee injury but then acting like there's no downside risk to this contract. Geeks is going to pay $5.4m (12% of his cap vs 8.7% at the original price) for someone who's going to be riding the bench for most of the 2024 season, and it's very likely he'll keep TJH on for at least 2025 at $5.94m if there's any optimism at all for a full recovery. But if TJH doesn't bounce back to Pro Bowl-level performance - which is a very reasonable expectation given the seriousness of the injury - then Geeks is losing with this contract. And if TJH is so bad that Geeks has to cut him at the end of 2025, the total accumulated salary + dead money during that period will be $13.4m. Does he get a good deal if TJH fully recovers? Of course! But if it goes the other direction - which again is a very reasonable expectation - he's setting fire to 10% of his salary cap over 3 seasons.

As for when/how someone should make an offer, you guys have your philosophies and I have mine. I assumed from the start that Geeks would match my offer, and now he's shouldering a more appropriate amount of risk vs simply stashing a Pro Bowler on IR for a season with the option to dump him at no cost next year. Could I have pumped him for more? Maybe, or maybe the risk of setting fire to even more of his salary cap over multiple years would've pushed him to decline, and I personally didn't want to take on any more of that risk than what I'd already offered.

[Achon44]

The only.downside to the knee injury we've mentioned is for 2024. We both feel he'll make a great recovery in 2025 and beyond as I imagine you do as well considering your offer was for 5 years.

[bocious]

The fact that you guys think I should have made a higher offer makes it pretty obvious that you're more optimistic about his recovery than I am. Sorry I didn't survey the rest of the league to ensure we're all aligned on our expectations for TJH's knee ligaments. If you guys have such strong opinions on when and how offers should be structured, feel free to propose the rule change.

[Achon44]

Last thing I'll say, please don't think I feel you should have made a higher bid. I just feel you gave Geeks a very nice gift.